Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Week 18, Tuesday

Yesterdays Projections  20/61 = 32%


Lock Time = 6:00

Free Agents that went over 20 yesterday
8% of FAs were 20+ yesterday
Koufos 24
Richaun Holmes  20


Started off the week with a very nice projection percentage. 32% is not very easy to get. Especially with 61 players in action. I have noticed that I over project teams not usually but most of the time. So when someone beats my projection then that means they had pretty good day. Kapper was only one who beat my projections last night. I projected my team for 140 and they scored 140. So also had one tie. 

Last week Eric had to do something that he did not like doing but he needed the win. So he dropped 3 guys that are worth owning so that he could get more plays in. When the week was finished Eric actually would of won without making those crucial drops. But I give credit to Eric for making those hard decisions. 
But when Eric dropped Schroder, Brooke Lopez and Dirk. I instantly went to the waiver order to see were I was at. Damn, I am 9th I found out, no chance at me getting any of those players. So I thought! Eric snagged up Schroder without using his waiver on Monday morning. Eric was surprised know one used waiver on him and I was to. But then i started thinking that everyone was saving there waiver for the next day when two more obvious players were coming off the waiver. I was at 9 and Matt at 7 and we both got the 2 dudes. Lopez was more obvious win then Dirk but both still need to be owned in a good way. So now i wonder why people did not use there waivers. Only thing I can come up with is that these two players do not play today so perhaps that went into the mind set of some owners who need a win this week very badly. 
With all this talk of these 2 guys who needed to be owned makes me think of other guys who need to be owned and are on waivers or free agency. Lets take a look at some of them shall we:

Alan Williams - With the way the Suns are moving to a younger lineup. Williams has become more involved and is now Lens backup as Chandler moved to the third string Center. With a very strong outing in his last game. Suns could look to see what Williams is made of down the stretch. Keep eye on him.

Kyle Korver - I am not sold on him being a must own guy. But we all know SGs are hard to find. So Korver could just be a high end floater at best. But he is also a guy to keep a eye on. 

Richaun Holmes - With a 20 and 28 in 2 of his last 3 games. Holmes has caught my eye and I have thought about adding him. If he plays over 20 minutes then it appears he can get 20 fantasy points. But not sure how many minutes they will be giving this guy.

Aaron Gordon - I think Gordon should be owned, i see him averaging 17 a game moving forward. With Ibaka gone someone had to step in and take more shots. That guy is Gordon.

Derron Collison - He is on waivers as Matt dropped him for Brooke Lopez. That opens up the door for someone to add a decent PG. I think Collison should be owned. His numbers have been decent as he has gone over 20 in 4 of his last 8 games.

Kyle O'Quinn - With Noah out for the year and Porzingis getting hurt every other week. Hernangomez and O'Quinn could be good 17 or better adds moving forward. Hernangomez is my top option out of these two but he is taken already. I say someone needs to own O'Quinn.


PROJECTED PLAYS WEEK 18
Ritter (43) 44  vs  Matt (44) 44
Deek (41) 41  vs   Eric (44) 44
     Gher (46) 46  vs  Dalton (40) 41
     Dane (43) 43  vs  Nathan (43) 43
 Kapper (42) 42  vs Todd (43) 43



#1 Ritter
Westbrook  27
Batum  21
Aminu  18
Morris  17
Pachulia  15
---Total---98
--Scored--100

#3 Matt
Lillard  23
Ingram  14
Curry  25
Kanter  17
Warren  18
---Total---97
--Scored--106

----------------------------------------------------

#6 Deek
Walker  24
Harris  18
Porter  16
Jokic  30
Adams  18
Chandler  16
Wall  24
Nurkic  18
---Total---164
--Scored--177

#8 Eric
Russell  17
Pope  17
Wade  22
Leuer  17
Gasol  25
Chriss  16
---Total---114
--Scored--104

------------------------------------------------

#10 Gher
Conley  20
Thompson  17
Harris  16
Plumlee 15
Gibson  14
Green  13
---Total---95
--Scored--75

#Dalton
Jackson  16
McCollum  22
Roberson  15
Drummond  25
Rondo  12
---Total---90
--Scored--79

-------------------------------------

#9 Dane
Bledsoe  20
Beal  17
Harkless  10
Randolph  15
Randle  17
Iguodala  15
Valentine  8
---Total---102
--Scored--148


#5 Nathan
Hayward  22
Gobert  25
Williams  15
Morris  18
Green  21
---Total---101
--Scored--120

---------------------------------------------------

#4 Kapper
Gallinari  17
Favors  17
Hill  17
Butler  26
Booker  16
Williams  18
---Total---111
--Scored--70


#7 Todd
Barton  17
Durant  30
Gortat  20
Nelson  17
Mirotic  14
Kaminsky  26
---Total---124
--Scored--84





Sunday, February 26, 2017

Week 18, Monday

Yesterdays Projections   18/69 = 26%

Weekly Projections  100/487 = 21%


Lock Time = 6:00

Free Agents that went over 20 yesterday
3% of FAs were 20+ yesterday
Alan Williams  32


POWER RANKING, Plays AND AVERAGE for Week 17
#1 Ritter       15-2    49   20.6
    #2  Matt  11-6    41   16.6
#3 Dalton  10-7    57   13.9
#4  Kapper  10-7    48  19.5  
   #5 Nathan 9-8    48  18.0 
      #6 Deek  8-9    44   19.9
    #7  Todd  7-10    48   17.9
      #8  Eric  6-11    51  16.1 
    #9  Dane  6-11    49  18.5
  #10  Gher  3-14    50   16.1





PLAYOFF PREVIEW
We are now down to just 3 weeks before the playoffs. And it has came down to 8 teams that could get to the finals. But the most focus I believe will be on Eric,Todd,Deek and Nathan. If Nathan or Deek win one more game in the last 3 weeks then that will eliminate Eric from playoff contention. Todd is on the outside looking in but his team has picked it up lately and is becoming a scary team to face, leaving Todd with a little bit longer leash then Eric to make the playoffs. Matt,Kapper and Dalton are all battling for the ever important 2 spot. I am already in the playoffs and I have clinched the 1 seed. Since I already can start planning for the playoffs it had me wondering how many plays each team would have and who would I rather face in the 2nd round and finals. So I started doing  some calculating and I came up with the playoff plays projections. This was done using the rosters we had over the All Star break(I had to have something to do). And I did not predict any acquisitions getting used. But by looking at these numbers you can find what team you want to face in the playoffs. And after looking, I can tell who I am rooting for to face in the championship if I get there. 

Playoffs First Round
Ritter Bye
Dalton 42
Eric 42
Nathan  41
Deek  41
Todd  41
Matt  40
Kapper  39

Playoffs Second Round
Eric  45
Ritter  43
Matt  43
Deek  43
Kapper  42
Dalton  41
Nathan  37
Todd  37

Playoff Championship
Ritter  60
Todd  60
Matt  58
Deek  58
Dalton  57
Kapper  56
Eric  55
Nathan  50

TALE OF THE TAPE


#1 Ritter
Season Average
Plays per Week = 41.1
Average per Play = 19.8
Weekly Score = 817
Career 
Record  40-17
Average per play = 18.2
Average plays a week = 41.6
Average Score = 761


#2 Dalton
Season Average
Plays per Week = 42.1
Average per Play = 17.6
Weekly Score = 743
Career 
Record  27-30
Average per play = 16.8
Average plays a week = 40.2
Average Score = 679


#3 Matt
Season Average
Plays per Week = 40.7
Average per Play = 17.5
Weekly Score = 715
Career 
Record  34-23
Average per play = 17.0
Average plays a week = 40.5
Average Score = 692


#4 Kapper
Season Average
Plays per Week = 38.5
Average per Play = 18.4
Weekly Score = 716
Career 
Record  24-33
Average per play = 17.7
Average plays a week = 37.3
Average Score = 664


#5 Nathan
Season Average
Plays per Week = 39.8
Average per Play = 18.0
Weekly Score = 717
Career 
Record  32-25
Average per play = 17.4
Average plays a week = 39.4
Average Score = 692



#7 Todd
Season Average
Plays per Week = 41.0
Average per Play = 17.3
Weekly Score = 707
Career 
Record  34-23
Average per play = 16.5
Average plays a week = 41.7
Average Score = 691


#8 Eric
Season Average
Plays per Week = 39.7
Average per Play = 17.0
Weekly Score = 675
Career 
Record  34-23
Average per play = 17.4
Average plays a week = 39.9
Average Score = 696



#10 Gher
Season Average
Plays per Week = 39.2
Average per Play = 17.2
Weekly Score = 676
Career 
Record  21-36
Average per play = 16.9
Average plays a week = 38.9
Average Score = 660



PROJECTED PLAYS WEEK 18
Ritter (43) 43  vs  Matt (44) 44
Deek (41) 41  vs   Eric (44) 44
     Gher (46) 46  vs  Dalton (40) 39
     Dane (43) 43  vs  Nathan (43) 43
 Kapper (42) 42  vs Todd (43) 43
---------------------------------------------
#1 Ritter
Harden  30
Evans  15
Waiters  17
Towns  34
Johnson  16
Smart  13
Pachulia  15
---Total---140
--Scored--140

#3 Matt
Collison  17
Hield  14
Barnes  17
Whiteside  27
Stein  15
Curry  25
Dieng  20
Crowder  17
---Total---152
--Scored--91

Matchup vs 1 and 2. This has the chance of being our championship game. Matt has to be happy that his team showed up on Sunday. Lets just see if he can put together a whole week instead of just one day. 
----------------------------------------------------

#6 Deek
Lee  17
Lebron  33
---Total---50
--Scored--55

#8 Eric
Mello  23
Ibaka  16
Teague  25
Schroder  17
---Total---81
--Scored--72

Very important match. Eric wins then he is still alive. A loss this week and he would be out of the running for playoffs and a repeat as champion. Not too bad Eric for being 1/1000 chance of making playoffs after week 10.
------------------------------------------------

#10 Gher
Rose  18
GA  30
Thompson  17
Howard  23
Ariza  15
Horford  18
Curry  17
Young  14
---Total---152
--Scored--110

#Dalton
Tucker  14
Joseph  11
Gordon  15
Millsap  21
Turner  24
Capela  21
Okafor  17
---Total---123
--Scored--69

Gher has still been fighting and almost eliminated Eric from playoffs. Can he keep it going to give Dalton a battle. Dalton is looking to take over the 2 spot so he can get the bye in round 1 of playoffs. We will see if Gher has a answer or our 2nd highest scoring team in the league.
-------------------------------------

#9 Dane
Williams  17
Dragic  22
Covington  16
Iguodala  15
Carroll  13
---Total---83
--Scored--92


#5 Nathan
George  20
Thomas  28
Noel  16
Thompson  20
Green  24
McConnell  16
Hernangomez  17
---Total---141
--Scored--102

Nathan needs to keep winning but not as much as Dane does. If Dane can upset Nate and get the win then he will still be in the hunt for the NUT. But Nathan is hard team to beat. Kapper had hell of week to take him down. I am sure Nate will bounce back strong this week. That is if Paul George decides to start playing better.
---------------------------------------------------

#4 Kapper
DeRozan  26
Beasley  16
Irving  22
Saric  17
Johnson  14
---Total---95
--Scored--106


#7 Todd
Rubio  23
Bradley  15
Wiggins  22
Durant  30
Monroe  20
Valanciunas  20
Beverley  17
Olynyk  16
---Total---163
--Scored--120

They both are great at doing taxes but who will be crowned the FANTASY TAX KING of 2017. The Tax Bowl is here and you both need to keep winning.This could be the match up of the week. Both teams have had a decent player average lately and both have been doing very well on getting plays each week. And also both team owners are super busy at work. We will see who finds more time to get the better acquisitions on daily basis.



Week 17, Sunday

Yesterdays Projections   15/66 = 23%


Lock Time = 2:30

Free Agents that went over 20 yesterday
23% of FAs were 20+ yesterday
Okafor  32
Ross  28
Mirotic  23
O'Quinn  21
Aaron Gordon  21
Hollis Jefferson  21
Kilpatrick  20

We had 14 acquisitions per team this week. So how close did we get to using all 140 acquisitions you ask? We used 95. But there could still be few more used this morning. 5 owners used at least 10 or more and 3 of them used all 14. Even Matt who had a strangely low number of plays used 12 while Deek is set to have one of higher point totals this week and only used 1. 

Yesterday I hit 2 peoples projections exactly. Just the total for the day, not every player for that day. This Sunday has shaped up for some excitement, that's for sure. We have 8 NBA games in action which means there is plenty of people to add for floaters today. Good Luck on those who need to win today. Eric and Dane are the 2 must wins today. Be sure to check back in tomorrow for my sneak preview of the playoffs. We will be just 3 weeks away and it very well could come down to the last week and last match-up, which is Todd vs Deek. 

PLAY PROJECTIONS
Ritter (48)  49  vs   Dalton (50)  57
Eric (48)  52  vs   Gher (46)  50
Deek (51)  44  vs   Dane (49)  51
Nathan (51) 48  vs   Kapper (51)  48
Matt (45)  40   vs   Todd (49)  48
________________
Record = 14-2
Player Avg =  19.7
Scoring Avg = 803
Point Differential =  +1,925
Weeks over 700 = 13
Weeks over 800 = 11
#1 Ritter 
Westbrook  35
Batum  18
Griffin  25
Aldridge  20
Holiday  15
Smart  15
Aminu  17
---Total---145
--Scored--177

Record = 10-6
Player Avg =  17.9
Scoring Avg = 741
Point Differential = +344
Weeks over 700 = 11
Weeks over 800 = 3
#2 Dalton
Paul  24
Lowry  28
Middleton  18
Tucker  14
Drummond  27
McCollum  23
Joseph  12
---Total---146
--Scored--78

Ritter  42---20.3
Dalton  50---14.0

Dream Crushers are projected exactly 1,000 if Aminu plays today. 
_____________________________

Record = 5-11
Player Avg =  17.0
Scoring Avg = 664
Point Differential = -867
Weeks over 700 = 5
Weeks over 800 = 2
#8 Eric
Gasol  24
Ibaka  18
P.Gasol  20
Pope  18
Russell  14
Chriss  18
Roberson 15
Leuer  16
---Total---145
--Scored--121


Record = 3-13
Player Avg =  17.3
Scoring Avg = 668
Point Differential = -949
Weeks over 700 = 6
Weeks over 800 = 1
#10 Gher
Conley  23
GA  31
Harris  16
Plumlee  18
Horford  15
Green  14
Gibson  10
---Total---127
--Scored--103

Eric  44---16.3
Gher  43---16.3

What decisions to make today for Eric. He has 2 acquisitions left and 6 people in action today. He already dropped a good guard in Schroder for a extra play today. And knowing Eric, he is also considering dropping either Wade, Lopez or Dirk for extra plays today. This match is very tight and it looks like Eric will need another play or two to get the victory. Since this is a must win week. I expect Eric to make the right decision here when others would have a tougher time doing so. These are the only times I wish I was higher up in the waiver order. 
______________________________
Record = 8-8
Player Avg = 18.0 
Scoring Avg = 692
Point Differential = -407
Weeks over 700 = 8
Weeks over 800 = 4
#6 Deek
Walker  22
Rivers  15
Jokic  30
MKG  18
Morris  17
Wall  25
Porter  18
Adams  17
---Total---162
--Scored--112

Record = 5-11
Player Avg = 17.1
Scoring Avg = 638
Point Differential = -1,089
Weeks over 700 = 4
Weeks over 800 = 0
#9 Dane
Beal  18
Davis  34
Randle  14
Randolph  17
Bledsoe  30
Harkless  15
Carroll  14
Dedmon  14
---Total---156
--Scored--152

Deek  37---21.2

Dane  43---18.4

Looks like Dane took the lead last night but Deek will take it back today unless Dane drops 2 guys and adds few more. Could the little brother beat the older brother. You know you want payback Dane, little brothers always want to beat the older one. That's how i am lol.
___________________

Record = 9-7
Player Avg = 18.0
Scoring Avg = 708
Point Differential = +360
Weeks over 700 = 9
Weeks over 800 = 3
#5 Nathan
Thomas  30
Hayward  25
Gobert  24
Morris  17
Jordan  24
Williams  14
---Total---134
--Scored--137

Record = 9-7
Player Avg = 18.3
Scoring Avg = 703
Point Differential = +130 
Weeks over 700 = 10
Weeks over 800 = 3
#4 Kapper
Hill  17
DeRozan  27
Leonard  33
Favors  17
Cousins  30
Gallinari  16
Booker  14
Beasley  17
---Total---171
--Scored--169

Nathan  42---17.4
Kapper  40---19.1

I would say Nate needs a miracle to win this week. They were both tied at 9-8 and the winner would get to move on and still have a fighting chance at the 2 seed. So now Nate will just need one more win to cement himself into the playoffs. My gut tells me that 10 wins will get you into playoffs. Ritter,Matt,Dalton and Kapper are only one in so far. 

__________________

Record = 11-5
Player Avg = 17.6
Scoring Avg = 718
Point Differential = +709
Weeks over 700 = 8
Weeks over 800 = 2
#3 Matt
Lillard  23
Crowder  17
Kanter  12
Warren  16
---Total---68
--Scored--106

Record = 6-10
Player Avg = 17.1
Scoring Avg = 698
Point Differential = -156
Weeks over 700 = 7
Weeks over 800 = 1
#7 Todd
Barton  14
Monroe  20
Gortat  20
Valanciunas  17
Olynyk  16
Nelson  14
Kaminsky  14
---Total---115
--Scored--90

Matt  36---15.5
Todd  40---18.8

With only 41 plays it would appear that Matt is taking himself out of the running for most plays on the year. Dalton is leading the race. And is running away with it. Todd has had a very solid week. If he keeps this up then it will be hard to keep him out of the playoffs.



PLAYS KING OF 2017 Season
2016 Plays King = Todd   867
2015 Plays King = Ritter  829
After week 17 we have had 6,305 total plays on the year. Average of 630 per team. With only 4 weeks of plays left to add up. We have 4 contenders for the Plays King of 2017. In 4th right now is Ritter with 650. 3rd is Todd with 651, Matt comes in second at 653 and are leader right now is Dalton with 661. Dalton is projected the most plays this week with 55. And if he keeps that projection up he will have 716 plays on the year. But with 3 weeks to go he would have to average more then 50 plays a week to catch Todd's record. So I think Todd's record is safe or the year.
Also on the season we are averaging 17.8 points on every play. That is substantially higher then are last 2 seasons. Here are the season totals on average per play on last 3 seasons.
2015 = 16.6
2016 = 16.9
2017 = 17.8